FUTURE
PROJECTIONS OF ARRIVALS
Planning
for markets in the master plan has been based on the concept of operational
efficiency, design flexibility, cost effectiveness and economic viability.
To put the concept into practice, modular concept, comprising preferred
land utilization pattern has been adopted and all other critical aspects like
circulation & parking, provisions for future expansion of the market etc.
have been taken into consideration.
Chhatishgarh State Master Plan for Market Development envisages
development proposals of 109 markets of the state, be it a big city market,
sub-urban primary market, or sub-yards, out of 115 market surveyed as in other
cases either the information was inadequate/ inconsistent or information was not
supplied. There are two categories
of markets i.e (1) Markets needing full development, and (2) Markets
needing partial development, but information in case of both has not been
furnished to the level it was desired, and as such it was found difficult to
ascertain the exact existing position. Therefore, the projections have been made
on the basis of past trend of arrival and accordingly cost estimates have been
framed. In case of markets, already
developed, ground verification needs to be done.
Projection Methodology
Future projections are based on number of important factors. It has
been decided to consider economic life of a market and not the physical life.
The markets have been planned for 20 years i.e. upto 2018,
considering the projected growth of arrivals in the markets surveyed. In the light of the future potentials of production, which
will ultimately influence the arrivals, linear growth rates have been applied to
arrive at a indicative figures of arrivals in the year 2018 taking 1998-99 base
year. For the surveyed markets,
arrival data for the past 7-10 years (upto 1998-99) were made available.
These data have been used to compute the projections by filling a least
square estimate for linearEquation:
Y = a+bt
Where t varies l,………..n,
Y = Future Projection of Arrival
A = Constant
B = Coefficient
T = Time
Arrival in the markets of Chhatishgarhhave been projected for the year
2004, 2009 and 2018 for mid term uses and assessment of performance.
A projection beyond 2018 is not considered desirable. Past experience shows that market needs are difficult to
foresee beyond say 15-20 years as changes that are likely to occur in the
marketing systems and procedures due to technological developments in the field
of produce handling, preparation, handling, packaging, storage transportation
etc., all influence the needs of markets. There
is then danger of part utilization of the facilities or unutilized.
Growth rates calculated for individual markets and projections made
thereof are given in annexures. District
wise growth rates calculated and projected arrivals are given in the following
table:
Table 5.1
Marketwise
Growth Rates
|
S.No. |
Mandi |
Growth
Rate |
Arrival
98-99 |
Arrival |
Arrival
|
Arrival |
|
2003-04 |
2008-09 |
2018-19 |
||||
|
1 |
Dhamtari |
0.66 |
160086 |
206019 |
257275 |
359788 |
|
2 |
Amdi |
3.90 |
4388 |
8832 |
13931 |
24128 |
|
3 |
Kurud |
1.31 |
5782.91 |
9008 |
12572 |
19701 |
|
4 |
Bhakhara |
2.45 |
1924.33 |
1809 |
2806 |
4800 |
|
5 |
Nagari |
0.92 |
24946 |
39145 |
51467 |
76112 |
|
6 |
Barai |
4.17 |
630 |
1066 |
1699 |
2964 |
|
7 |
Belargaon |
4.10 |
968 |
710 |
1069 |
1788 |
|
8 |
Rijgaon |
3.70 |
260 |
167 |
226 |
346 |
|
9 |
Durg |
0.31 |
32337 |
79092 |
89659 |
110792 |
|
10 |
Dhamdha |
3.25 |
12190.7 |
18555 |
29577 |
51620 |
|
11 |
Patan |
2.95 |
13107.9 |
18126 |
28925 |
50521 |
|
12 |
Balod |
1.81 |
46752 |
59512 |
87792 |
144351 |
|
13 |
Doundilohari |
2.65 |
4366 |
15641 |
24551 |
42371 |
|
14 |
Kawarda |
1.48 |
30366 |
49013 |
69862 |
111558 |
|
15 |
Pipariya |
1.84 |
1605 |
4767 |
6926 |
11244 |
|
16 |
Pandria |
1.13 |
5767 |
10916 |
14862 |
22755 |
|
17 |
Mahasamund |
0.98 |
52809 |
88169 |
117217 |
175313 |
|
18 |
Bhoring |
3.04 |
3452 |
6134 |
9502 |
16239 |
|
19 |
Jhalap |
1.09 |
1669 |
4997 |
6765 |
10299 |
|
20 |
Basna |
1.25 |
45776 |
70687 |
97871 |
152238 |
|
21 |
Bagbhara |
1.02 |
19868 |
31694 |
42381 |
63755 |
|
22 |
Tendukona |
0.76 |
2418 |
5740 |
7321 |
10483 |
|
23 |
Komakhan |
0.90 |
7873 |
14279 |
18714 |
27585 |
|
24 |
Bhimkhoj |
0.21 |
1348 |
2221 |
2432 |
2855 |
|
25 |
Saraipali |
1.15 |
49404 |
87400 |
119237 |
182912 |
|
26 |
Balado |
3.16 |
1982.8 |
4909 |
6810 |
10610 |
|
27 |
Toshgaon |
3.01 |
1452.1 |
2765 |
3803 |
5879 |
|
28 |
Pithora |
1.31 |
18104 |
44626 |
62272 |
97566 |
|
29 |
Sankra |
0.88 |
5874.9 |
10394 |
13566 |
19909 |
|
30 |
Raipur |
1.83 |
1311617 |
1773444 |
2620726 |
4315292 |
|
31 |
Silyari |
0.52 |
407 |
555 |
671 |
901 |
|
32 |
Shashtri Bazar |
0.68 |
49395.7 |
67478 |
84611 |
118877 |
|
33 |
Fal Bazar, Lalpur |
0.31 |
5471.1 |
13308 |
15105 |
18699 |
|
34 |
Bhatapara |
0.96 |
88184 |
131785 |
174651 |
260385 |
|
35 |
Simga |
3.11 |
345 |
407 |
563 |
875 |
|
36 |
Navapara |
1.06 |
146030 |
213081 |
286790 |
434207 |
|
37 |
Aarang |
1.37 |
28123.5 |
45248 |
63674 |
100528 |
|
38 |
Palari |
0.83 |
19387 |
36831 |
47670 |
69347 |
|
39 |
Bhattgaon |
1.36 |
779 |
1475 |
2072 |
3267 |
|
40 |
Seewa |
1.61 |
1344 |
1818 |
2628 |
4250 |
|
41 |
Garibandh |
1.08 |
6058 |
12299 |
16616 |
25248 |
|
42 |
Chhura |
1.47 |
1734 |
4076 |
5700 |
8946 |
|
43 |
Abhanpur |
3.46 |
14293.4 |
23934 |
32107 |
48451 |
|
44 |
Rajnandgaon |
1.50 |
144101 |
192277 |
274767 |
439748 |
|
45 |
Bandhabazar |
1.61 |
11599 |
19281 |
27879 |
45073 |
|
46 |
Chowki |
1.28 |
3050 |
4421 |
6148 |
9601 |
|
47 |
Chhuriya |
1.66 |
43181.38 |
117241 |
170404 |
276730 |
|
48 |
Dungargarh |
2.92 |
51189.27 |
66844 |
106520 |
185871 |
|
49 |
Dungargaon |
1.96 |
7916.9 |
16549 |
24734 |
41104 |
|
50 |
Kheragarh |
2.49 |
5353 |
22732 |
34075 |
56760 |
|
51 |
Ganda1 |
3.64 |
9233.15 |
9624 |
13023 |
19821 |
|
52 |
Jadalpur |
0.72 |
36935 |
85624 |
108359 |
153830 |
|
53 |
Kondagaon |
0.44 |
10289 |
31141 |
36776 |
48045 |
|
54 |
Narainpur |
0.64 |
3128 |
21592 |
26803 |
37225 |
|
55 |
Keshkal |
2.20 |
22942 |
31349 |
47771 |
80614 |
|
56 |
Gidam |
0.94 |
4945 |
7230 |
9548 |
14184 |
|
57 |
Bijapur |
2.52 |
2045 |
5828 |
8756 |
14612 |
|
58 |
Kanker |
1.22 |
21808 |
30631 |
42222 |
65405 |
|
59 |
Charama |
0.84 |
13001 |
22637 |
29319 |
42684 |
|
60 |
Bilaspur |
0.53 |
20401 |
73020 |
88229 |
118647 |
|
61 |
Bilha |
0.53 |
20723 |
28515 |
34447 |
46310 |
|
62 |
Beltra |
1.85 |
43 |
1320 |
1955 |
3224 |
|
63 |
Mungeli |
1.30 |
25824 |
41973 |
58487 |
91515 |
|
64 |
Pathari |
1.70 |
212 |
381 |
536 |
845 |
|
65 |
Sargaon |
2.33 |
7863 |
29018 |
43016 |
71013 |
|
66 |
Jairamnagar |
1.25 |
9801.9 |
19710 |
27306 |
42496 |
|
67 |
Kota |
2.34 |
11547 |
13786 |
20862 |
35014 |
|
68 |
Lormi |
0.69 |
7699 |
18762 |
23563 |
33167 |
|
69 |
Pendraroad |
1.14 |
3258.2 |
5455 |
7431 |
11382 |
|
70 |
Takahatpur |
1.86 |
15851 |
25197 |
37349 |
61651 |
|
71 |
Sakari |
1.87 |
3823 |
5122 |
7595 |
12541 |
|
72 |
Naila |
1.64 |
46962 |
61230 |
88827 |
144023 |
|
73 |
Baloda |
0.39 |
308 |
301 |
350 |
448 |
|
74 |
Shiori Narayana |
1.88 |
7300 |
13169 |
19552 |
32316 |
|
75 |
Shakti |
1.73 |
90575.5 |
126011 |
184441 |
301300 |
|
76 |
Barathar |
1.75 |
16339 |
20184 |
29606 |
48451 |
|
77 |
Kotni |
1.26 |
3498 |
4691 |
6504 |
10131 |
|
78 |
Hasaud |
1.60 |
591 |
765 |
1105 |
1784 |
|
79 |
Chanderpur |
1.72 |
18212 |
24227 |
35423 |
57816 |
|
80 |
Champa |
1.44 |
15728.5 |
18041 |
25591 |
40690 |
|
81 |
Birra |
2.14 |
471 |
722 |
1004 |
1570 |
|
82 |
Akaltara |
1.96 |
29502 |
47882 |
71578 |
118971 |
|
83 |
Rahaud |
3.19 |
4591 |
7795 |
11606 |
19228 |
|
84 |
Jaispurnagar |
3.61 |
55081 |
67162 |
106851 |
186229 |
|
85 |
Kunkuri |
2.49 |
1197.1 |
2160 |
3237 |
5390 |
|
86 |
Pathalgaon |
1.76 |
177018 |
258556 |
379595 |
621673 |
|
87 |
Dharamjaygarh |
1.76 |
177018 |
258559 |
379602 |
621689 |
|
88 |
Kotava |
1.76 |
177018 |
258560 |
379605 |
621696 |
|
89 |
Bugechha |
2.57 |
10499 |
24956 |
38328 |
65073 |
|
90 |
Katghora |
1.36 |
12540 |
19743 |
27733 |
43713 |
|
91 |
Baikunthpur |
0.28 |
1548.7 |
1933 |
2172 |
2649 |
|
92 |
Raigarh |
1.49 |
22964 |
58101 |
82939 |
132615 |
|
93 |
Pussour |
3.03 |
17040.8 |
26183 |
39651 |
66587 |
|
94 |
Chikhali |
3.16 |
8264.7 |
9570 |
10875 |
13485 |
|
95 |
Sarangarh |
1.73 |
71448.4 |
87134 |
127607 |
208554 |
|
96 |
Kedar |
3.16 |
4654 |
5389 |
6124 |
7593 |
|
97 |
Beramkela |
1.61 |
18540 |
24990 |
36123 |
58388 |
|
98 |
Saria |
1.74 |
18368 |
21839 |
32008 |
52344 |
|
99 |
Ghargoda |
1.78 |
14550.23 |
19228 |
28271 |
46357 |
|
100 |
Kharsia |
2.45 |
491595 |
554077 |
858955 |
1468712 |
|
101 |
Ambikapur |
1.36 |
9147 |
7671 |
10781 |
17002 |
|
102 |
Raghunathpur |
1.32 |
1647 |
1626 |
2272 |
3563 |
|
103 |
Kakni |
1.45 |
4695 |
4875 |
6925 |
11024 |
|
104 |
Bariyan |
1.03 |
1785 |
2032 |
2722 |
4101 |
|
105 |
Rajpur |
1.25 |
7579 |
8432 |
11672 |
18152 |
|
106 |
Udaipur |
0.91 |
7845 |
6686 |
8785 |
12982 |
|
107 |
Ramnuganj |
2.19 |
21775.7 |
20486 |
31190 |
52599 |
|
108 |
Surajpur |
1.85 |
8031.9 |
8505 |
12593 |
20768 |
|
109 |
Kusmi |
1.45 |
27710 |
82425 |
112733 |
173350 |
|
|
Total |
|
4352077.67
|
6335288
|
9087490
|
14591883
|
Table 5.2
Percentage
Change in Growth Rate of Markets
|
S.N. |
Category |
% Change |
|
1 |
A |
3.49 |
|
2 |
B |
3.69 |
|
3 |
C |
3.66 |
|
4 |
D |
3.37 |
Table 5.2 depicts that ‘B’ category of markets have been reported
with highest percentage change of arrivals i.e. 3.69% on an average
whereas ‘A’ category markets could attain 3.49% of growth rate during the
last decade. Similarly.
C and D category of markets have obtained 3.66 and 3.37% of percentage
change, respectively.